The Next Pope Is Potentially Ghanaian, But Here’s Why He Might Not Win

The Catholic world is once again at a turning point. With the passing of Pope Francis, the Church must now choose a new leader. Many in Africa are watching closely, especially because a Ghanaian, Cardinal Peter Turkson, is among the names being discussed. People are asking: Could this finally be Africa’s time? Could the next pope be a Black man from Ghana? And if so, what would it mean for the Church and the world?

The truth is, Cardinal Turkson has many of the qualities the Church needs right now. He is experienced, respected, and has stood firm on issues like climate change, poverty, and justice. But despite all this, there are strong reasons why he might not become pope. In this article, we explore both sides of the story. We explain why many people believe in him, and also why the reality behind the Vatican’s walls may not favour his election.

Who Is Cardinal Peter Turkson?

Cardinal Peter Appiah Turkson was born in 1948 in Nsuta, Western Ghana. He became a priest in 1975 and rose steadily through the Church’s ranks. In 2003, Pope John Paul II made him a cardinal, and since then, he has become one of the most visible African faces in the Vatican.

He studied in Ghana and Rome and speaks several languages, including English, French, and Italian. His international experience and strong education make him well-equipped to handle the global demands of the papacy.

Turkson served as the head of the Vatican’s department for justice, peace, and human development. In this role, he became the voice of the Vatican on issues like climate change, economic injustice, and migration. He also worked closely with Pope Francis, especially during the early years of Francis’s papacy.

He is widely respected in Africa and globally. His calm, humble manner makes him approachable, and his deep knowledge of Church teachings adds to his credibility.

Why Many Believe He Could Be the Next Pope

1. A Shift Towards the Global South

The Catholic Church is growing fastest in Africa. According to the Vatican’s official statistics, Africa has over 250 million Catholics, and this number continues to rise. Meanwhile, in Europe, Catholic numbers are shrinking.

It makes sense to ask: if Africa holds the Church’s future, shouldn’t the next leader come from there? Electing a pope from Africa would be a powerful message that the Church truly belongs to everyone, not just Europe or Latin America.

2. His Work on Global Issues

Cardinal Turkson has led the Church’s response to major global problems. When Pope Francis released his famous document on the environment, Laudato Si’, Turkson helped draft it. He has spoken at the United Nations and other global stages.

In a world filled with climate disasters, inequality, and migration, Turkson’s voice has always pointed to justice and human dignity. This aligns with the values the Church claims to uphold.

3. His Moderate Approach

Turkson is not too conservative, and he’s not too liberal. He sticks to Church teachings but shows compassion. This balance may appeal to many cardinals who want unity in a time of division.

He’s also a Jesuit ally, sharing values close to Pope Francis, without being identical. That could make him a bridge between the Francis era and whatever comes next.

4. Representation and Symbolism

Imagine what it would mean for a young African Catholic to see someone from their own continent become pope. It would inspire a new generation and send a strong message of inclusion.

It would also be historic. The last time the Church had an African pope was over 1,500 years ago. Turkson’s election would not only make history but also modernize the Church’s image.

But Here’s Why He Still Might Not Win

Now we turn to the difficult part. As much as Africans want to see one of their own wear the white robes, the truth is more complex. Based on insider reports, past events, and current Vatican politics, there are reasons why Turkson may not be the one chosen. Let’s go deeper into these challenges.

1. He Was Passed Over Before

In 2013, after Pope Benedict XVI stepped down, Turkson was among the favourites. Many believed it was his time. But when the cardinals voted, he didn’t gain enough support.

Instead, they chose Jorge Mario Bergoglio (an Argentine), now known as Pope Francis, the late one. Turkson didn’t even make it to the final rounds. This tells us something: while he is admired, he may not have deep backing inside the conclave.

2. His Speaking Style and Public Presence May Not Appeal to All Cardinals

Cardinal Turkson is known to be soft-spoken, calm, and reflective. He chooses his words carefully, avoids flashy statements, and speaks with humility. This style works well in deep discussions or small meetings. Many people respect it, especially in religious circles where calm leadership is valued.

But in today’s world, popes also need to connect with a global audience, not just Church leaders, but also young people, the media, and non-Catholics. That takes a certain public presence, or what some call charisma.

The past two popes, John Paul II and Francis, were very strong communicators.

John Paul II had a magnetic stage presence. He filled stadiums, captured hearts, and used media well. Francis, while more humble, knows how to use simple words and gestures to send powerful messages. He’s media-savvy in a quiet, strategic way.

Turkson, by contrast, is more academic and formal in his tone. He’s not as comfortable being the centre of global attention. Some cardinals might worry that he won’t be able to rally global support, handle press pressure, or rebuild public trust in a Church facing criticism.

3. Quiet Departure From His Vatican Role

In 2021, Turkson stepped down from his job as head of the Vatican’s development office. Some saw this as a normal transition. Others saw signs of disagreement or dissatisfaction.

No official reason was given. But according to reports from Crux News and National Catholic Reporter, there were management problems in his department. If this is true, it might raise doubts about whether he could handle the pressures of leading the entire Church.

4. Age Is a Factor

Turkson is 76 years old. This is the same age Pope Francis was when elected, but many cardinals may now prefer a younger candidate who can lead for longer.

With Pope Francis facing health issues in his later years, the conclave may want someone in their late 60s or early 70s. This puts people like Cardinal Tagle (67) and Cardinal Zuppi (69) in a better position.

5. He Doesn’t Represent a Clear Voting Bloc

Conclaves (i.e., the assembly of cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church who gather to elect a new pope) often involve different groups with different interests. There are conservatives, reformers, diplomats, and regional alliances.

Turkson doesn’t clearly belong to any major bloc. He is African, yes, but the African bloc is small (about 18 Cardinals). He is not conservative enough for traditionalists, nor is he the top choice of the reformers.

So while many like him, few may fight hard for him. And in a conclave, you need strong backers to win.

Composition of Cardinals according to geographical region (Continents Table)

6. The Church Moves Slowly on Race and Geography

Let’s be honest. The Catholic Church still struggles with diversity at the top. Even though African Catholics are growing in number, leadership remains mostly European.

There is no rule that says a pope must come from a certain race or have a certain skin colour, but in practice, most Popes are not normally from the African race, and that has been the case for centuries. Breaking this pattern will take not just a good candidate but also the courage to challenge deep-rooted tradition.

Let’s Talk About Vatican Politics

To understand Turkson’s chances, we must understand how the conclave works.

There are about 135 cardinals under age 80 who can vote. Two-thirds must agree on one name. Voting takes place in secret inside the Sistine Chapel, with no contact with the outside world.

Often, the early votes are spread among several candidates. Then, as some drop out, others rise. The cardinals talk, pray, and build alliances. It can take a few days, or it can take longer.

So it’s not always the favorite who wins. Sometimes, it’s the compromise candidate who rises as a safe option. This happened with Pope John XXIII in 1958 and even with Pope Francis in 2013.

But compromise doesn’t always favor someone like Turkson. If the cardinals feel he isn’t strong enough to unite the Church or manage the Vatican’s internal structure, they may turn elsewhere.

So Who Is More Likely?

According to current Church analysts and leaked Vatican insights, the strongest names are:

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy): Vatican Secretary of State. Strong in diplomacy and administration.
• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Seen as Francis’s favorite. Young, pastoral, and popular in Asia.
• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): Known for his peacebuilding work. Moderate and respected in Italy.

All three have advantages that Turkson does not. They are younger. They have stronger Vatican backing. And they represent larger blocs of support.

Tagle, in particular, may be the biggest threat to Turkson’s chances. Like Turkson, he comes from the Global South (Philippines). But he has more visibility, more Vatican support, and a broader base.

What Would It Take for Turkson to Win?

He would need something unusual to happen:

• A deep deadlock among the top candidates
• A push for unity and symbolism
• A group of cardinals willing to break tradition

It’s not impossible. But it would require courage from within the conclave and support from influential voices.

If some cardinals begin to feel that the Church truly needs to show change, not just talk about it, Turkson might rise as the symbol of that change.

Our Final Key Takeaways

Even if Turkson doesn’t become pope, his presence in the conversation matters. It shows that African leadership is not just a dream, but a growing reality. It proves that the Church sees the continent not just as a mission field, but as a home of leadership.

And let’s not forget: he has already made history. He became the first Ghanaian cardinal, the first African to lead a major Vatican department in modern times, and one of the Church’s strongest voices for justice.

The next pope may not be African. But one day, that day will come. And when it does, it will be because leaders like Turkson paved the way.

So Africa should not be disappointed if he is not chosen. The continent should be proud, deeply proud, that one of their own stood tall among giants and proved that they belong at the top.

The world may not be ready. But Africa is.

And the Church, slowly but surely, will follow.